I don’t understand how the race can be “neck and neck” according to traditional polling, yet all of the online tracking indicates that Obama has a much greater following. (I suppose the same thing was true of Ron Paul.) Take a look at the difference in size of their respective Facebook groups and the difference in traffic to their websites based on Google Website trends. How is this possible?
“John McCain and Barack Obama head into the fall campaign neck and neck…… The national poll finds Republican McCain with the support of 46 percent of registered voters and Democrat Obama with 45 percent. The survey has an error margin of plus or minus 3.3 percentage points.” McClatchy Poll 9/11/08
Arguments against traditional polling:
Traditional polls typically only sample a very small group via home telephone (precluded from calling cell phones) and ask a few (usually biased) questions.
Problems with online data:
Only a subset (the richer and smarter portion statistically) of the United State population uses the internet and computers on a regular basis. This would mean that the sample isn’t a true sample of the US population and leaves the online data a little misleading.
My question is, why do we believe the traditional polls when the online polls are equally biased? If we believed every online poll, Obama would lead by several percentage points.
Which poll do you think is more accurate?
I’m willing to bet $10 McCain wins this bullshit election…
(by the way, a close race goes to the republicans… See video for more details)
How George W Bush Stole his Election- BBC
4 responses so far ↓
1 J. Mays // Sep 15, 2008 at 8:27 pm
You’re on. But instead of $10… one kamikaze, one red-headed slut and one jager bomb.
2 Travis // Sep 15, 2008 at 11:42 pm
I hope you are right, my friend. I will see you One kamikaze, redheaded slut and jager bomb and multiply it by 3. You do not need to respond, just make sure your candidate wins.
3 Barack Obama // Sep 15, 2008 at 11:59 pm
Great article travis!
Too be honest, I don’t stand much of a chance. Palin has too much sex appeal, and the republicans cheat and fight dirty.
I’m sure the US will be fine with 4 more years of corrupt, war mongering leadership.
4 Laura // Sep 16, 2008 at 12:29 am
It’s pretty simple, Travis…
Who is more likely to have a landline phone? Old people.
Who is less likely to use the internet? Old people.
There’s a LOT of old people in this country, and I’m certain most of ‘em are voting for McCain. I say all this not as any form of political commentary, but rather just a potential (I’d argue likely) explanation for the differences in numbers you’re seeing.
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